Citing older work the distribution is most of the time a power law distribution with varying power coefficients. New work done by the author is to look at the distribution of casualties of events belonging to one war – and they also follow powerlaws (data for Iraq and Columbia are investigated) – and compared for terroristic events.

The power coefficient is in these at roughly 2.5. Making a further analysis of this coefficient as it changes during the war time (by subpartitioning the data) one sees that for the Iraq war it goes from lower to 2.5 (from large armies to insurgents), for the Columbia war from higher to 2.5 (small disorganized to better organized insurgents). Terroristic casualties are following a power law with about 2.5.

One more thing is the analysis of time sequence of events, compared to randomized set of these events: this shows a difference, meaning that the time-sequences are non-random, so have at least some systematic order in it (unfortunately no more details are given on that).

The power-law behavior might not be too surprising as it is the result of random group acts in this case, without any given ‘scale’.

The article is interesting but I find it a bit introductory (it starts by explaining normal vs. power-law distributions), still the application of scientific statistical methods to this area is an important contribution.

In music: famous hits might sell very strong early, but some albums can make a substantial over the many years when still more and more people want to buy it.

Older long tail items are also proven things, time tested – in general people are more satisfied with old DVDs than new hits!

In movies: DVDs are expensive first, Walmart looses money on the hits in the first weeks – but prize is coming down quickly and earnings happen later, or through sales of other items.
Compare Netflix: Netflix is in sweet spot: cheaper DVDs as they are older, and people are even more satisfied, as there are the recommendations of other people clarifying what it is about, whether it is good etc.

Key problems of old companies: 1. limited shelf-space, channel capacity etc and 2. not easy to find

‘DVDStation’: TByte device in store, burning DVDs on demand -> shelf space & findability addressed
Amazon and print on demand – not much more expensive (well, 50%) and solves shelf-space problem, and books are nearly indistinguashable!

Archives are growing in worth, but use of archives is largely a rights question! (e.g. TV show with background music – copyright nightmare)
Should rights be changed? Maybe have to pay (low amount) to keep the right?

Books: imprisoned with current rights: rights are transferred to book company, when out of print, nothing can be done anymore. Authors not always in favor of print on demand, as it is more expensive, they would rather get the rights back.
Used book market: great for availability, but bad for authors, as they don’t get anything here anymore

Interesting point: Google is not concerned with new stuff, rather with older and proven (in form of linked to content)!

What is the role of an editor in the future? Think in terms of pre- vs post filtering – the role of a gatekeeper (pre-filter) is over, but role remains in recommendations and for coaching of authors.

Great quotes (taken from the summary):

“Of all the human who have ever lived over 65, two-thirds are now alive now.”

“Heart disease kills more people than all the other leading causes of death put together, including cancer. Cure heart disease and you create 20 million demented people. Our health system is not geared for chronic disease.”

“In the US the old used to be the poorest segment of society. Now they’re the richest. For instance, they buy 80% of luxury travel. So why are they still getting discounts?”

“People vote their age. 30% of 30-year-olds vote. 50% of 50-year-olds vote. 70% of 70-year-olds vote. We have a gerontocracy.”

“The old do the least volunteering of any age group, and for every 11 cents that children get from government, the old demand and get a dollar. The concept of giving back is still foreign to them. If the now-aging Baby Boomers decide to reverse that, they’ll earn the title, “The Grandest Generation.”

“What people really want, and what they’re going to get, is longer HEALTH span. We should be asking now, What is the PURPOSE of longer life?”